According to a new industry survey by the Drewry maritime consultancy, most container shipping stakeholders expect Suez Canal transits to resume before the end of 2025. At the same time, they are bracing to navigate through the impact on global trade patterns of the Trump Administration’s punitive tariff agenda.
The survey identified 54% of respondents counting on full-scale Suez Canal operations to resume by the end of 2025, with 29% projecting a 2026 reopening.
Red Sea shipping disruptions due to Houthi attacks and the rerouting of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope have cost Egypt at least $7 billion in lost Suez Canal revenue.
Suez Canal Authority Chairman Osama Rabie recently expressed optimism about a potential traffic increase by late March, with full recovery possible by mid-year, dependent on a sustained Gaza ceasefire.
On U.S. trade policy, the survey shows widespread expectations of higher tariffs. An estimated 32% of respondents see the U.S. effective tariff rate landing between 5-10% by year-end, versus 2.4% in September 2024. And 13% of respondents see tariffs exceeding 20% – or the greatest levels since the Great Depression.
Some 85% of respondents expect additional duties on China. Mexico, Canada, and the European Union also rank high on the target list.
(Photo of Suez Canal)