According to the latest report by noted shipping analyst John McCown, a 3.2% year-over-year increase in U.S. inbound container volume for July 2025 represents a temporary reprieve driven totally by tariff frontloading.
“This is a temporary reprieve and was driven by frontloading to get goods in prior to additional tariffs going into effect in early August,” McCown declared.
He describes the National Retail Federation’s projection of a 5.6% decline in total inbound volume for 2025 as “a reasonable estimate” for U.S. containerized imports.
But he warns that the coming drops could be much more severe: “I anticipate a negative trendline with some months showing more than 17.5% decreases.”
“The downward turn in 2025 will be due solely to tariffs and unfortunately there is nothing at present that suggests it will be short-lived,” Mr. McCown observes. “More than ever, it now looks like significant tariffs will be in place at least during the balance of the current administration.”
Meanwhile, current spot rate trends appeared to confirm this outlook, with Drewry’s World Container Index declining for the 11th consecutive week. “We expect it to continue falling in the coming weeks,” said Drewry, adding: “The volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on Trump’s future tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of US penalties on Chinese ships, which are uncertain.”
Transpacific spot rates fell this week, as rates on Shanghai–Los Angeles fell 3% ($2,332/feu) and those on Shanghai–New York reduced 5% ($3,291/feu). The phase of accelerated purchasing by US retailers, which induced an early peak season, has ended. In response to a decelerating US economy and increased tariff costs, they are now scaling back on procurement but at a measured pace. Hence, Drewry expects rates on this trade lane to continue declining in the coming weeks.
Asia–Europe spot rates also fell this week, as rates on Shanghai–Rotterdam reduced 10% ($2,661/feu) and on Shanghai–Genoa slid 5% ($2,842/feu). Despite healthy demand and port delays in Europe, a growing surplus of vessel capacity has been pushing down spot rates on this trade lane.
(Photo of Port of Los Angeles)