Global trade proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2026 despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict, as supply chains adapted and strong investment in artificial intelligence provided a powerful boost to goods trade. However, the resilience was not uniform, with services trade and some regions more exposed to the effects of the conflict. World Trade Organization (WTO) economists have therefore raised the forecast for merchandise trade growth in 2026 while lowering the outlook for services trade.
According to the latest “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” released today, merchandise trade volume is now expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026, up from the March forecast of 1.9%, before increasing further to 4.1% in 2027. The revision reflects evidence that global supply chains adapted to disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets, while strong investment in AI-related infrastructure boosted trade in AI-enabling goods.
Commercial services trade growth is expected to remain positive, although prospects have moderated due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on transport and international travel. Services trade volume is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2026, down from 4.8% in the March forecast, before rising by 6.4% in 2027.
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: “The numbers reflect trade resilience in action. When disruptions strike, an integrated world economy and a rules-based trading system provide economies flexibility to keep essential products flowing to businesses and households that need them. Nevertheless, some have felt the shock more than others, and not everyone can access emerging opportunities like AI. It is essential to ensure that the rules-based trading system continues to absorb shocks and bridge gaps so that opportunities are open to all.”
Growth drivers in the first half of 2026
Merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5% in the first half of 2026, exceeding expectations despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict. The performance reflected the ability of supply chains to adapt to shocks affecting energy, fertilizer and transport markets. Although crude oil exports from the Middle East fell by roughly 24% and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 47% in the first half of 2026, increased shipments from other suppliers helped limit the decline in global exports to around 6% for crude oil and just 1% for LNG.
Fertilizer markets also adjusted despite severe disruption, with global imports of nitrogenous fertilizers only 2.8% below recent averages and phosphatic fertilizer imports 2.2% higher as alternative suppliers stepped in. Meanwhile, trade flows were rerouted through alternative ports and corridors. Global container throughput remained resilient, rising 3.9% year-to-date through July.
Strong demand linked to AI investment more than offset the negative effects of the conflict in the Middle East. Demand for AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, and trade in these products rose by 67% year-on-year, accelerating from the already rapid expansion seen in 2024 and 2025.
Commercial services trade grew by 14% year-on-year in value terms in the first quarter of 2026 and 10% in the second quarter. Growth slowed in the second quarter as the Middle East conflict disrupted transport and travel services, two sectors that depend heavily on the region’s role as a global hub.
Transport services were affected by the reorganization of shipping routes and sharply higher freight costs. Travellers’ expenditure abroad increased by just 5% year-on-year in the second quarter, down from 15% in the first quarter. International tourist arrivals fell by 0.8% in the second quarter and were only 0.4% higher in the first half of the year overall according to data from the United Nations World Tourism Organization, reflecting a contraction in international tourist arrivals.
Despite these headwinds, other commercial services, particularly digitally delivered services, remained comparatively resilient and continued to support overall services trade growth. Computer services exports, one of the fastest-growing segments of services trade, rose by 18% year-on-year in the first quarter and an estimated 12% in the second quarter, helping to offset weakness in transport and travel services. Financial services exports likewise grew, by 14% year-on-year in the second quarter.
The report includes an analytical chapter on trade in AI-enabling goods, examining how the AI investment boom is reshaping global trade patterns, regional specialization and the geography of demand and supply.
(Dreamstime image on world trade)