According to the latest analysis by BIMCO, ship transits through the Panama Canal have remained markedly lower than historical averages. The report showed capacity down 10% between September 2024 and January 2025 versus the 2019-2022 average.
The decline has persisted despite the lifting of transit restrictions that were implemented between June 2023 and September 2024 due to low water levels in Gatun Lake amid a severe El Nino-related drought.
“Transit fees, changes in trade patterns and the establishment of a new normal could all be keeping ships from fully returning to the canal,” remarked BIMCO Shipping Analysis Manager Filipe Gouveia. “For the sectors which haven’t fully returned, this has resulted in increased tonne mile demand as sailing distances have increased. Instead of transiting through the canal, ships sail around the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn.
“Although a return to the canal has been slow for some sectors, we still expect ship capacity transiting the waterway to increase. Transits of container, LPG and car carriers are already above historical levels and could continue growing. However, the medium-term outlook for the dry bulk sector looks cloudier amid strong competition for grains shipments between the US and Brazil and a poor demand outlook for coal.”
(Photo of Panama Canal locks)