By Michael Grey*
On the occasion of last month’s “Day of the Seafarer”, I wonder how many of them felt properly appreciated. As members of a largely invisible workforce, in most of their home countries, it would be forgivable if this annual event was greeted with no more than a shrug. Even those trapped behind the dire straits of Hormuz, watching the so-called cease-fire with apprehension would have been aware that most of the general public’s concern revolved not around seafarers’ safety, but the effects of the war upon their cost of living. But let us not get too cynical; there are some hopeful signs that there might be some sort of permanent accommodation, albeit with the freedom to navigate through these international waters being regulated in some way.
If the toll structure is no more than that of light dues (which ships are already supposed to pay, although many skip this obligation), the industry could probably live with this. But the celebratory day was notable this year for the publication of the five-yearly BIMCO/ICS Manpower Survey, which is an increasingly useful portrait of the global supply and demand situation. This has been running since the 1990s, when the first signs of a manpower crisis was officially recognised, although as far back as maritime history has been written, individual nations have faced up to shortages. These they dealt with in singular fashion, using the press gang or crimps to address the fact that seafaring was probably not an occupation of choice.
Only in more enlightened times has there been any serious attempt to make seafaring more attractive. Just about every survey that the partners have published has produced a consistent message of potential shortages down the line, and this is no exception.
The current global shortfall of 39,100 officers, which somehow the industry manages to tolerate is likely to increase to 113,000 by 2030, with the global demand for qualified officers expected to be 1.16m. Ratings remain in surplus, as they have done for the last several surveys. And while there has been no dramatic breakthrough in the crew sizes aboard ships, the 14% growth in the world fleet to 85,148 ships has seen a 35% increase in demand since the last report in 2021. Wastage remains a worry as always, although one headline we should note is that according to recently published and extensive surveys of the workforce, a good half of those questioned said that they aimed to leave the sea in the next five years.
Cadet situation improving
If you think of that in the context of a need for nearly 23,000 new recruits each year, there is a real challenge here. If there is any genuine good news, it is that the cadet situation seems to have improved, as it is easier to find cadet berths after a real struggle over many years. The two organisations also comment on the fact there is a better monitoring of recruitment and retention by maritime administrations. The first surveys sometimes found it it like drawing teeth to get meaningful data from some administrations, probably because they did not actually collect it. Could there be any great external influences that throw these anticipated figures off course? It might be recalled that between the first and second reports in the 90s, the whole manpower situation changed on account of large numbers of well -trained officers arrived in the international workforce after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is not beyond the realms of probability that should the Russian/Ukraine war end, a considerable number of officers from each of these countries might elect to return home.
It is also important not to forget the increasing impatience of the current workforce with the conditions afloat today, with recent WMU data revealing general unhappiness with working hours, the lack of shore leave, bad memories of treatment during the pandemic, and the last three months in the Gulf will not have helped to lessen the pain. There is general dissatisfaction with working hours and the ”average”of 71 hour weeks, high stress levels and dangerous levels of fatigue. It is interesting to note in the BIMCO/ICS report comment on the need for better promotion prospects and the development of clearer pathways from ship to shore-side appointments, and a more attractive whole career. Nothing new there. “We believe that the industry would benefit from seeing that more of the most promising seafarers were trained to fill responsible posts ashore at a relatively early age.” That was the Rochdale Report into British Shipping from 1969. People needed to appreciate seafarers more then, too.
(Seafarer photo from IMO)
*Michael Grey is former editor of Lloyd’s List. This column is published with the kind permission of The Maritime Advocate.